Tag Archives: 80 percent

No wonder women choose the bear

In a recent post on Matriarchal Blessing, Celeste Davis quotes from a French Q&A about the Dominique Pelicot case:

He said: « So, let me get this right. In the fairly small town of Mazan, Dominique Pélicot easily found 90+ men willing to rape his wife while she was drugged and unconscious. Hundreds more saw the messages on the forum and not one decided to tell the police about it. »

At that point, a lot of us were kind of bracing for either a dismissal of the facts, or some convoluted explanation for how those men were unique. But no. He continued:

« So, does that mean that in every town, every village in our country, there are just as many men willing to rape an unconscious woman? »

Lorraine de Foucher replied, « Yes. »

« But then that means that there are thousands, tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands! » (You could hear at that point the wheels turning in his head).

« Yes », she nodded again.

« But… that’s abominable! It’s a catastrophe! It’s a national emergency! »

« …… Yes. It is. »

I would be delighted to say that’s a big pile of bollocks. It isn’t. Consider, as exhibit A, this CNN story about an online network of men who bond over drugging and raping their spouses. Absolutely horrifying — be wary if you have related triggers — not only in the act itself but in the way the men on the various sites reinforce each other’s behavior, advise on the choice of drugs, etc.

It’s another example of my point that 10 percent of men (or any group) are actively good, 10 percent evil and 80 percent can go either way (the percentages are guesstimates). Dominique Pelicot’s community might not have been rapists in the ordinary course of events; given an invite, they swung to evil. And even those men who didn’t act kept mum about it. Similarly, these online forums may push some men who might not have turned rapist otherwise — though that emphatically is not an excuse. If all it takes to get someone to rape their partners is a chat online and a desire to impress your new buddies …

Exhibit B, Rick Pidcock’s discussion of how photos of Epstein’s parties don’t include any adult women: “as soon as there was a table, food, hors d’oeuvres, a main course, some red wine on a table, the women disappeared.” Why? Publisher Anand Giridharadas at the same linke: ‘These are men who basically want a frictionless experience of the world. And they associate many different types of things with friction. Like a 40-year-old woman opposite you at dinner is the nightmare of these men because a 40-year-old woman with opinions, whose passport you don’t have in a locker, an actual grown woman with thoughts and opinions who can leave and come and go as she pleases and is free and is mature and has strength, these men were so terrified. They clearly organized themselves logistically to never be in the presence of such women. You do not see 43-year-old women in the Epstein Files.”

Giridharadas goes on to say it’s about creating a “power distance” between men and women: “For some very small number of men, that means pedophilia,” he said. “For a larger number of men, it means … only being comfortable at the table when it’s like a guy’s thing, that the women are kind of accessories, women are for fun time, women are for the pool, but not the dinner table because the dinner table is for conversation and conversation is two-way. And these guys don’t want to hear anything women have to say.” Or as he puts it on his substack, “Conversation has the problem of being two-way. Women and girls in this world were for receiving — for doing things to, not with.” (Celeste Davis sees this primarily as a matter of men being trained to shun anything feminine, including women).

The substack piece goes on to draw a line between Epstein’s circle and the power of money to eliminate friction in people’s lives. These men have the money and connections to get what they want without having to wait or go through the processes most of us do; indeed, being forced to play by the rules infuriates them. “I don’t believe it’s an accident that this promise of seamlessness, of a touch-point-free existence, of the removal of anything indifferent to one’s wishes, of the outer world rendered as an extension of the self — it simply cannot be an accident that sometimes, for perhaps a small subset of these men, this expectation goes beyond skipping the line at Newark, and beyond even having the 25-year-old girlfriend who is simply grateful to be kept around.”

Pidcock sees a similar connection with complementarian ministries: women are restricted to carefully limited roles and when the men on the ministry board sit around talking Serious Business, there are no women in the room. And women whose writing is platformed on complementarian websites “tend to focus on topics such as women’s roles in the home and in the church, homeschooling, body image, processing emotions, abortion, parenting and other concerns young complementarian wives and mothers might be interested in. It’s not nearly as common to find a woman focusing on atonement theology, the Trinity or many of the theology-rich themes the men write about.”

I also see a resemblance to something Kristin Kobes duMez wrote about (and I’ve linked to before), the nostalgia for traditional community that ignores many of those communities kept women behind the scenes in support roles.

Then there’s Lili Loofbourow’s piece on aging, petulant men from the Toddler’s first presidential term. Much like Giridharadas’ billionaires, “the only thing the Old Boy hates more than being told no is being questioned. He is both fussy and smug—think of Paul Manafort seething, arms crossed, as he stared at underling Rick Gates in court, or Sen. Lindsey Graham theatrically yelling “This is hell” about a hearing process his own party devised. The Old Boy is so essentially dishonest that his lies seem almost innocent. An Old Boy lies fluently and to your face, and he will explode in rage if you point this out to him not because you’re wrong (this is key) but because you don’t matter and neither does the truth; an Old Boy gets to say and do what he likes.” And what drives them to cross lines —sexual assault, corruption, Alex Acosta giving Epstein a sweetheart deal — isn’t just the money or sex but “the thrill of feeding appetites that can’t actually be satisfied, of gloating, of winning the game.” And the thrill fades, so on to the next transgression.

Patriarchy, wealth, entitlement, the desire never to be denied anything, including women’s bodies. It’s a vile mess.

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The good side of 80 percent, 10 percent, 10 percent

I’ve blogged repeatedly about the idea society is made up of 10 percent heroes, 10 percent villains and 80 percent who can go either way depending on circumstances. The first year of the Necrotic Toddler administration, seeing how many institutions caved to him, that was depressing: would the 80 percent simply submit to they tyrant and do nothing?

As we’re seeing in Minneapolis, I may have been too cynical and too lacking in faith. As Paul Krugman wrote last week, “moral outrage over the Trump administration’s brutality (and its corruption, but that’s a subject for another post) has exploded as a political force over the past two months. There was substantial resistance to ICE’s attempts to intimidate Los Angeles and Chicago. But the response since the invasion of Minneapolis (and now all of Minnesota) began in December has been on another level, a mass nonviolent uprising reminiscent of the civil rights movement in the 1960s and the color revolutions in the former Soviet empire.

MPR News reports that nearly 30,000 Minnesotans have been trained as constitutional observers, with another 6,000 volunteers registered to deliver food, give at-risk families rides, and so on. This is time-consuming, exhausting, dangerous activism. Yet ordinary Americans in large numbers are willing to do it.”

Adam Serwer: “Vice President Vance has said that “it is totally reasonable and acceptable for American citizens to look at their next-door neighbors and say, ‘I want to live next to people who I have something in common with. I don’t want to live next to four families of strangers.’” Minnesotans are insisting that their neighbors are their neighbors whether they were born in Minneapolis or Mogadishu. That is, arguably, a deeply Christian philosophy, one apparently loathed by some of the most powerful Christians in America.

… No matter how many more armed men Trump sends to impose his will on the people of Minnesota, all he can do is accentuate their valor. No application of armed violence can make the men with guns as heroic as the people who choose to stand in their path with empty hands in defense of their neighbors. These agents, and the president who sent them, are no one’s heroes, no one’s saviors—just men with guns who have to hide their faces to shoot a mom in the face, and a nurse in the back.”

This does not guarantee victory. But as I blogged about Sunday, other countries have had resistance movements that persevered in the face of tyranny and won. And while I’m still horrified at how many people support the Necrotic Toddler, I’m not quite so despairing about humanity as a whole.

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Good and bad happening simultaneously (again)

Something I’ve blogged about a few times before is that things can be getting worse and better at the same time.

I felt freaked out and scared when the Felon won in 2016, even though as a comfortably off white dude I wasn’t directly in the line of whatever was coming. I felt worse in 2024. There was no longer any hope that maybe the Felon wouldn’t be as bad as I thought. As Michelle Goldberg says, the biggest scaremongers about him were spot on. The alarmists were the sensible, grounded one.

I know people who dropped off social media out of concern their anti-Felon posts would be used against them. I wasn’t one of them but I didn’t think they were crazy. The whiny Necrotic Toddler doesn’t believe there’s any crime on Earth worse than not bathing him in the love and worship he thinks he deserves. The Republican Party as a whole is all in on suppressing dissent.

And as Paul Krugman says the people in power seemed to throw in the towel rather than resist: “Our vaunted institutions, our system of checks and balances, either capitulated quickly or were overrun by Trump’s onslaught. Big business quickly bent the knee, immediately directing its focus to how to make money through Trump trades. The Supreme Court and the Republican Congress abetted and even encouraged every fascist move.”

And it has gotten bad. We’ve waged war on Venezuela, we’re talking about attacking Greenland to take it from Denmark (unsurprisingly, rich people are pushing for this), slapping tariffs on nations that oppose the Greenland conquest, the White House nominee for ambassador to Iceland talks about making Iceland the 52nd state. Back home, ICE is murdering people for disrespecting them. Their boss, Kristi Noem, has not only not acknowledged the error (saying that the buck stops with her would require ethics and a spine. She’s never shown any sign she possesses either), she’s asserting ICE officers can stop anyone and demand proof of citizenship. As multiple people have pointed out, security police demanding “papers please!” from citizens is what we used to hold up as What Doesn’t Happen In America. So much for that.

Except that, as Krugman says in the same post, it’s not working out like they planned: “If Minneapolis is a laboratory of democratic destruction, it has also become a laboratory of civil resistance — organized civil resistance, of a kind we haven’t seen since the civil rights movement. When ICE is on the rampage, crowds of brave Americans, summoned by texts and whistles, quickly gather to stand against the masked men with guns.” As I’ve mentioned before, for every committed activist there are three or four people who won’t step up until they see it’s possible. Each act of resistance inspires more. Each act of resistance says that no, the Felon and his enablers can’t simply roll over everyone in their path. They can be stopped. Case in point.

Jamelle Bouie: “Trump wants us to be demoralized. He wants his despotic plans to be a fait accompli. They will be if no one stands in the way. But every time we — and especially those with power and authority — make ourselves into obstacles, we also make it a little less likely that the administration’s authoritarian fantasy becomes our reality.” This does not undo the bad things that keep happening: the kids not getting vaccines, trans kids who can’t receive care, ICE’s victims. But they are not the inevitable face of the future either.

There are limits to what a president can do. The Necrotic Toddler is whining we should cancel the midterms because the party in power always loses and that’s soooo unfair when he’s done such wonderful work, even if people don’t appreciate it yet. As Courtney Milan says, there’s no legal grounds for this — which is not to say it can’t happen but it’s not something the Toddler can just snap his fingers on.

We can do more and we can do it without violence, as Cheryl Rofer says at the link. And while satire won’t bring down the Felon, it does prick his illusion of invincibility and encourages more people to mock him. So right on Jimmy Kimmel! And leaders here and abroad who speak up.

As Paul Campos says, it’s time for Democratic Party to fight. Including trials for anyone in the Felon Administration who’s committed crimes — no “Well, that would be criminalizing politics.” I don’t want the DOJ to persecute anyone in the Felon Administration, no matter how vile they are — but yes, if they have committed crimes, take them down.

And given the Republican push for gerrymandering, it only makes sense, for now, for Democrats to play hardball back.

Lots of Dems, including Minnesota’s Gov. Walz, are pushing back hard, calling out the fascists. Not all. The pull of centrism is strong, the conviction that only by being the blandest, most inoffensive candidate possibly can Dems win. Which frequently translates into focusing not on what Dem voters support but what Republican voters want.

Perhaps the most remarkable case, which I somehow missed until recently, is Chuck Schumer’s test for making political decisions: asking whether an imaginary Long Island couple, Joe and Eileen Bailey, would support him. “Schumer describes the couple as Reagan-era Republicans — socially liberal but fiscally conservative. He’s offered up intricate details about their fictional lives: their love of Kung Pao chicken, Joe’s habit of singing the national anthem at Islanders games, and Eileen’s father’s chilling run-in with prostate cancer.” That’s a little detailed for his purpose … but what’s really daft is that the Baileys are Republicans. As noted in the quote, they voted for Reagan. Joe voted for the Necrotic Toddler in 2016, 2020 and 2024; Eileen abstained in 2020, otherwise she’s a Trumper.

These are not the people, even if they were real, who should be the inspiration for Schumer’s policies. And “socially liberal but fiscally conservative” — if they voted for Reagan and the Felon, where is the social liberalism? I’m not sure there are that many socially liberal but fiscally conservative voters out there, though the media loves talking about them (which may explain Schumer’s framing).

There’s the conviction among some Dems that even trying to recapture control of Congress is an absurd goal. Or that Democrats should do what centrists always recommend: forget about abortion, POC, immigrants and focus on things like drug prices and inflation. Honest to god I’ve seen tweets from elected Dems complaining the problem with ICE violence and regime change in Venezuela is that it won’t lower the price of groceries. Um, it’s okay to say Renee Good’s murder is bad and waging war for oil is bad, period. It’s true talking about the Felon’s threat to democracy didn’t win the day in 2024, but he’s making the case for us.

It’s important not only to contact our Republican reps with disapproval (it can’t hurt) but to let our Democratic representatives and senators know we support them when they fight, and disapprove when they don’t. There’s lots of other stuff we can do, even if it’s only sending checks to groups on the frontlines, but telling them where we stand is part of the resistance. Let them know the centrist path is not the road to walk.

I’ll conclude with Andrea Pritzer’s quote: “People who embraced cruelty have caused tremendous death and suffering in 2025, but those opposed to cruelty have banded together, gaining so much strength across the year. We will continue to rise, and our power increases each time we do.”

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The seductive appeal of Jeffrey Epstein

Jeffrey Epstein knew royalty, Silicon Valley techbros, brilliant scientists, Donald Trump, and moneyed people. Ken Starr, who mismanaged sexual assault complaints when president of Baylor University, was both Epstein’s attorney and his buddy. Bill Gates, Stephen Hawking, Bill Clinton … the list of Epstein’s A-list connections was huge.

Andrew Gelman ponders possible reasons: they’re suck-ups, they wanted money, they wanted access to the women, they thought Epstein was cool, they liked him (more detail at the link). Blogging about Larry Summers, whose career has not survived his friendship with Epstein, Paul Campos suggests it’s the cool factor: “Many many people love the feeling that they’re part of the in crowd, and I suspect that this especially true among academics, given that 93.71% were high school losers who never made it with a lady etc.”

Fred Clark quotes CS Lewis making a similar point decades ago: “Nine out of ten of you the choice which could lead to scoundrelism will come, when it does come, in no very dramatic colors. Obviously bad men, obviously threatening or bribing, will almost certainly not appear. Over a drink, or a cup of coffee, disguised as triviality and sandwiched between two jokes, from the lips of a man, or woman, whom you have recently been getting to know rather better and whom you hope to know better still—just at the moment when you are most anxious not to appear crude, or naïf or a prig—the hint will come. It will be the hint of something which the public, the ignorant, romantic public, would never understand: something which even the outsiders in your own profession are apt to make a fuss about: but something, says your new friend, which “we”—and at the word “we” you try not to blush for mere pleasure—something “we always do.”

And you will be drawn in, if you are drawn in, not by desire for gain or ease, but simply because at that moment, when the cup was so near your lips, you cannot bear to be thrust back again into the cold outer world. It would be so terrible to see the other man’s face—that genial, confidential, delightfully sophisticated face—turn suddenly cold and contemptuous, to know that you had been tried for the Inner Ring and rejected.”

This is the point I keep making about how a significant percentage of people aren’t committed to good or bad — it’ll depend on who they’re looking up to, working for, whether random circumstances or a chance meeting nudge them one way or the other. That’s not an excuse for the ones who go bad: turning a blind eye to Epstein’s actions because they thought he was sooo cool is not cool. But it is an explanation. And contrary to columnist Jason Willick who’s outraged that being chummy with a creep like Epstein got Summers fired, I think consequences are one of the ways we nudge people in the right direction. It’s true Summers may not have done anything illegal but knowing the kind of man Epstein was and staying silent is a pretty damning stain.

For the record, so is Kash Patel ducking Epstein questions from Congress.

Rebecca Solnit makes a good point, that the main reason Epstein and his acolytes are an issue is because feminism changed the culture: “feminism that insisted that women were people endowed with rights, that sex, as distinct from rape, had to be something both parties desired, that consent had to be active and conscious, that all human interactions involve power and that the vast power differential between adult men and children meant that no such consent was possible.

It was feminism that exposed the ubiquity of child abuse, rape, sexual harassment and domestic violence, that denormalized these abuses that were so much part of patriarchal society. And still are, far too much, but the dismissive, permissive attitude of the past is past, at least in mainstream culture.”

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Overton’s window, rationalization and the 80 percent

As I mentioned last week, religious conservative Franklin Graham has left the ECFA, an organization that provides financial oversight for church boards. The reason: ECFA now includes requirements the boards watch over the minister’s moral integrity. Which given so many ministers don’t have any (JoeMyGod has a long list) seems like a good idea.

Graham objects that “This is ultimately a sin problem, with its root in the human heart, which only God can fix – not ECFA, even with a mountain of standards.” But financial fraud is a sin problem too. Most crimes are a sin problem. Should we have no standards for anything? It’s like Republicans insisting that people are gonna shoot and kill regardless of anti-gun laws … but if Republicans ran cities they could stamp out all the crime and violence.

As Ministry Watch says, laws and rules don’t eliminate the desire to sin but they can discourage people from sinful/illegal/morally vile actions. As I keep saying, only a small percentage of people are truly good or evil; 80 percent (a somewhat arbitrary number) can go either way depending on their circumstances and inclinations. A preacher who knows his board will not turn a blind eye to him assaulting his secretary or keeping child porn on the office computer won’t want those things any less, but not acting on those impulses is still better. Setting standards conveys that some things are unacceptable, though not enforcing them will undercut that. The Southern Baptist Conference has turned a blind eye to sexual harassment and assault but it’s a lot tougher on women in authority and gay-friendly churches. That tells the membership what the real moral lines are. “To argue that the ECFA’s new standard won’t solve man’s “sin problem” is both 100% accurate and 100% beside the point.”

Likewise, the Necrotic Toddler pardoning George Santos because he’s a dependable Republican supporter sends a clear message that rules don’t apply if you serve the Glorious Supreme Leader. That pardon exempts Santos from repaying $600,000 to people he cheated. Conservative activist and alleged same-sex harasser Matt Schlapp’s defense: everybody’s doing it! 40 percent of the people in Congress have done the same thing so big effing deal!

In the first place if Schlapp really believed Santos wasn’t so bad, he’d be honest about what Santos had done (e.g., using other people’s credit cards to make unauthorized donations, raising funds for a vet’s sick dog and keeping the money [the dog died]). In the second, no-one has ever been convicted of a crime that someone else didn’t get away with. Is Schlapp suggesting that this is a valid defense in general, or like “we are all sinners” is he applying it only when he wants someone to go free.

That may be one of the long-term problems from living with the corrupt, oozing mass of the current Republican Party. As Paul Campos says, he grew up watching Nixon go down, a sign the system worked; what are kids are growing up with these days, and what message does it send? Therapists are likewise worrying about the impact of the Felon and his bullying behavior — will that normalize bad behavior for others?

The increasing enthusiasm on the Republican side for normalizing Hitler and other horrible views (rape is epic! Send our foes to the gas chamber!) doesn’t help. As Fred Clark says, neither does treating this as “well, of course they’re Nazis, everyone knows that.” Lots of us know this; the open embrace is still shocking. And being shocked is also part of policing boundaries. Some of the GOP have cut ties with the people in the I Love Hitler chat. And GOP senators have turned against racist Felon nominee Paul Ingrassia for his own “Nazi streak.”

Shame works. Setting standards like “Nazis bad” still matters, even though it won’t make Nazis go away. Shame can work on the wrong side — shaming someone for being gay, shaming rape victims, shaming the disabled — but it can be good too. What Schlapp and Graham are arguing for is against shame, stigma and consequences for genuinely wrong behavior. As others have observed, Graham’s opposition to making church leaders accountable for sexual sin implies he’s either covering his butt or he simply doesn’t think those sins are objectionable.

We can conclude the same about Speaker Mike Johnson, a sad Felon toady who despite his professed Christianity has no problem celebrating a video where King Trump poops on protesters, or insisting any Democrat who doesn’t love the Necrotic Toddler’s destruction of the White House East Wing is crazy. The video itself is “profane, corrupt and exploitive of the human pain that craves libertine excess rather than the discipline of imperfect but civil Jeffersonian contemplation, discourse and democracy.” It’s literally endorsing treating people like shit.

So is the idea that pissing off liberals is justification for whatever the Felon does. Fascist toady Sen. Josh Hawley thinks liberal outrage to Trump’s White House renovation is reason enough to do it. Or Joe Rogan saying the Felon stepping down and winning the California governorship would be “fucking hilarious.” Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy it when things like last weekend’s spectacular protests piss off Republicans but that’s not a justification for them.

This applies to democrats too. Gerald Platner, who wants to be the Dems’ nominee for Maine senator (taking on Susan Collins), has an old Nazi tattoo from his military days. I can buy his story that he didn’t know what it was — getting bad-idea tattoos while drunk used to be a cliche (maybe not so much now that they’re so common) — but he’s had 20 years to learn. Twenty years he could have covered it up. He didn’t. And yet some Democratic podcasters and others are grumbling about “purity tests.” “No Nazi tattoos” is a reasonable test, sorry (Platner seems to have other issues too).

By contrast, Violent J. of the Insane Clown Posse seems genuinely repentant about having written and sun homophobic lyrics: “I tell my daughter, “For the rest of your life, when your friends ask why your dad said that, say it’s because your dad was a fool. Don’t defend me. Say I was a fool then, but I’m not now.” There’s no excuse. I was going with the flow, and that’s the very thing we preach against — being a sheep. And that’s what I was doing.” As Fred Clark says at the link, self-shaming matters too.

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