I actually have no idea what will be in 2025, other than “bad.”
Trump and the right wing plan many, many horrible things. Even if they don’t accomplish them all, they’ll do a lot of damage. We will not be able to save everything but as Rebecca Solnit said recently, we can save some things.
The thing is, we’ve never been in a situation like this before. With such a massive agenda to remake America for the worse, Republicans have a lot on their plate and Trump’s an incompetent. A lot of it may not get done. There’s already stirrings of opposition: Gavin Newsom in California has been listing the things his state won’t comply with. The military is reportedly telling soldiers they don’t have to comply with illegal orders.
On the other hand, Trump’s never had any concern with rules. He shreds them and does whatever he damn well pleases and because nobody’s ever made him pay a price … well, here we are. The law won’t stop him but just how far can he go? I have no idea.
Some of my friends are hopeful his overreach will cost him in 2026 or 2028. I’m not sure we’ll have anything better than banana republic-style elections where everyone votes and opposition candidates win but the party in power always comes out with 99 percent of the vote (note: many banana republics were created by the US installing puppet governments—it’s nothing innate to Latin America). I hope I’m wrong.
The best news is that in 2016, a lot of people (including me) were hopefully it might not be too awful. Nobody who’s not in Trump’s camp is saying so now. People are thinking how to survive, how to help others survive, how to avoid collaborating. I have no idea where that will lead, but I’m hopeful good comes out of it.
I’m quite sure that 10 years from now the US and the world will look very different. The Trump/Vance regime will happily give Putin as much of Europe as he can take. The United States could be completely crushed into fascist serfdom, in some kind of an insurgency, or in a constitutional crisis as states refuse to comply with federal mandates. To say nothing of what global warming might do—a few more hurricanes like Helene striking inland.
The standard anthology is Nazi Germany but it could be anything: Stalinist Russia, Franco’s Spain, Argentina under dictatorship. I don’t know if that’s significant and it certainly isn’t meant to suggest “it won’t be that bad” (Argentina dropped dissidents out of planes into the ocean, then gave their babies to their killers to adopt. No I’m not kidding).
What Is. I’m still a mix of gut-clenching despair, anger and moments of normal life joy. We have two months before the tyrant takes his throne — he would love to know that the mere thought of him coming to power was making us miserable before it happened. Screw that. I shall have fun.
That’s not a judgment on anyone else. If someone’s despairing because they’re afraid their marriage is about to be voided, I don’t blame them. Or despairing at the increased outrage on the right. I know people scared enough they’re erasing their online presence or any part of it critical of Trump. At this point me doing that would feel like pre-emptive compliance (acting on what you think the fascists want) but I ain’t going to tell anyone else what to do. The risk is real.
What was. So what happened last Tuesday, when the felonious cry-baby got a majority of the popular vote. A whole bunch of things.
•The right-wing media hose has been flooding the country with lies. Those who were more informed about the level of crime and inflation voted Harris — but a lot of people weren’t informed, whether they’re learning from right-wing media or turning to people in their social network who follow Fox or Newsmax or whatever. Harris’s policies are more popular even with Trump voters (as long as they’re not identified as Democratic policies). This will be a major problem going forward. Even if the left tries to set up its own (we’ve tried before) it’ll take a long time.
This may explain why so many people voted for polices — abortion rights, minimum wage hikes, gay legislators (Texas appointed the first LGBTQ US Representative from the South) and for the guy who opposes all such things.
•The media were no help. Whether because they wanted a horse race or Trump gets clicks or the owners are ready to collaborate, we got sanewashing, Biden’s age and generally poor coverage.
•People made horrible decisions. I’ve read multiple account of conversations that included people who know Trump will be better this time. Or that he won’t deport them because they’re here to work, not to commit crimes. Or there’s another group of illegal immigrants who need to be deported, surely Trump knows they’re the real problem.
•Kamala Harris is a woman and that was enough to keep lots of people home.
•Incumbents all around the world were hard-hit this year.
•Voters gave Trump a ree pass. He’s minced no words about his plans but (as Alexandra Erin says), somehow people convinced themselves he wouldn’t do the stuff they didn’t like but he would do the stuff they wanted, even if he hadn’t promised it. Perhaps that’s why it’s a Cult of Trump.
I do not think there’s some miracle policy that would have helped Harris win. I definitely don’t think that toning down concern for women’s rights, gay rights, etc. would have helped. As Don Moynihan points out, Trump plays the identity politics card full-on but as it’s for white, male, Christians it gets a pass.
And it’s quite possible the story of who didn’t vote and how bad Harris lost will change as we get more data. That doesn’t change the plight we’re facing but it will affect strategy going forward.
I will leave with a final note from Liz Plank: “If hoping for a better world is embarrassing, then let me cringe in peace. I’d rather lose while standing for something, than win being on the side of hate. You should feel proud that you stood on the right side of history, even if that side wasn’t successful.”
